Wednesday, October 24, 2007

An Interesting Statistic

Tucson, Arizona. Daniel Scarpinato has a piece today discussing fundraising results for the presidential candidates. Arizona raised about $1.2 M for presidential candidates in 3Q07. McCain got the most at $327,000, but unfortunately for McCain, his coffers pale in comparison, and he won’t win the nomination anyway. More telling is who ranked second in the state for campaign donations, someone who will win the nomination, Hillary Clinton, who got $281,000, who raised more than anyone except McCain in Arizona. According to Scarpinato, $225,000 of her contributions came from the Tucson area.

Nationally, Clinton dominates the field financially, and the woman understands campaign infrastructure from the bottom to the top as well as any politician. Enough of the presidential race and let’s talk about Arizona.

Let’s look at a something other than money: Voter registration. AZ Central has an article discussing the subject, and since July 35,462 individuals have registered to vote. They can sign up as Democrat, Republican, or Other.

Other: -------20,755
Democrat:-- 11,681
Republican: 3,026

The article notes the four-to-one Democratic advantage, but what leaps off the page to your humble blogger is not the ratio of Democrats to Republicans, but the Republican portion of the total, 3,026 out of 35,462. For the last three months, for every 12 people that registered to vote, 7 selected Other, 4 selected Democrat, and 1 selected Republican.

The dramatic rise in Independents should give both parties cause for reflection. The Arizona GOP has a numbing statistic to consider:

One out of twelve.


Blogger thinkright said...

wow 11% Repulbican earlier this year is now down to 8.5%. Not good for my party. I'd be interested in finding out the national numbers to see if this is an Arizona issue or a national issue.

10/24/2007 6:51 PM  
Blogger Tony GOPrano said...

Don't underestimate John McCain. He can beat your Queen, Hitlary R. Clinton and you dems know it. You dems are already planning to Increase Taxes and that won't play well with voters.

But what must really piss off you dems is the fact that the Surge in Iraq is working. Your girl Hillary will bring out Republican voters in droves, so #'s like your reporting don't concern me.

10/24/2007 8:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tony, that would all be fine and good but read the blogs. John McCain is dead in the water. They think he is a liberal. You and I both know that he is the only true conservative in the race. Kudos to you for seeing that at least.

You have some real work to do on the GOP party faithful. Good luck to you.

I mean that sincerely.

10/24/2007 9:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh...and even though I would rather see Obama with the nomination, I would not bet against Clinton now without serious harm threatening me. I mean, if I had real cold hard cash that I was forced to bet, Clinton would be it. For a lot of reasons. For the nomination...

10/24/2007 9:26 PM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

McCain's time has passed, and I think even he is beginning to come to terms with it.

Unless political progress is made (recall those "benchmarks" that were supposed to be applied???) the surge isn't working. Feel free to show me the big movement forward on the Iraqi political scene.

10/25/2007 7:08 AM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

Oh ... and this year is going to shatter the record for most US deaths in Iraq in a given year. We're only 15 short, and have 2+ months to go.

10/25/2007 7:10 AM  
Blogger Dustin said...

Nobody wants to see a tax increase, and I don't think one is likely if there is a significant republican presence in congress. In any case, 2 trillion has to come from somewhere, and while I would like for wishing to make it appear, that sadly won't cut it.

I admit, I'm skeptical about any "progress in Iraq," if only because there is so much to be gained by the administration for proving it. Those numbers were listed as since january. I would like to see numbers for overall violence, along with the way those are being measured, and any changes to measurment methodology. I'm sorry, but having been in the service my self, I know for a fact that guys will pad the stats any way they can to make their commanders happy. Every skipper, department head, and JO I ever worked with did it.

More folks registering indy? I can't say I'm surprised. when faced with such awesome choices, who can decide?

10/25/2007 8:05 AM  

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