I’ve already written
a post about the demise of numerous newspapers and the precarious situation faced by the surviving ones. The future of the newspaper is subject to heated debate in the current discourse, and the reader needs no help from me to access those exchanges. I don’t think the printed page faces extinction, but clearly its scope and function faces profound transformation over the next few decades. For all I know, even legal documents will be digitized with notary public technician monitored retinal scans replacing signatures over the printed names of the signatories.
The subject of this post extends far deeper than the plight of our newspapers. I am talking about the whole enchilada of media as we know it, and let’s move to the major television networks of NBC, CBS, ABC, and more recently FOX. When I was young, we had three channels. Such days are over, and cable and satellite television has exponentially blossomed to where traditional television reception is all but obsolete. The implications are profound as the television "triopoly" now competes with literally hundreds of alternative options including AMC, TNT, TLC, HIST, DISC, CNN, Spike, HBO, Showtime, the list goes on. Half of the people I know don’t even watch the current equivalent of the big three networks that once comprised all that existed of television.
Just to scratch the surface, HBO started a trend with top quality and immensely popular series like
The Sopranos, Six Feet Under, and
Sex and the City, with Showtime following suit with
The L Word and
Dexter, and AMC now producing
Mad Men. Every show just listed is intelligent, well produced, and of quality at least equal to and more likely exceeding any show produced by the
not so big four.
In fact, I’m not even to the punch line, for the cable and satellite television technology is really only an intermediary step to what the reader can already foresee. We’re going online, and the Internet is where all of this is headed. Network television already offers streaming video of many of their programs at their Web sites. I exaggerate not. Miss the season finale of Fox’s Sarah Conner Chronicles Friday? No problem. Go to the
Terminator Web site and you can see it online for free. Just click in the box to the right. The distance from your PC monitor to your 42 inch HDTV is evaporating as we speak. All too soon Channel 13 and youtube are a click from each other on the same screen over the same connection.
While all of the content and entertainment aspects are interesting, the critical consideration involves the financial infrastructure that effectively solicits the revenue necessary to fund the production and delivery of this content. Who pays for it in the new reality? In case the reader isn’t following, in the old paradigm, advertising funded the edifice. This program brought to you by... and we watched a 30 second piece on Charmin’s, another for Ragu, and maybe one more for Alka Seltzer. Rates for such spots were based on ratings, and there’s the glitch. As the ratings metric shifts to hits, and going further, visit durations, how this pans out is anything but straightforward. ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX will soon be scratching their heads as those at the New York Times, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, and Tucson Citizen are scratching theirs today.
By the way, and I love cinema, but when 40+ inch HDTV’s and affordable Bose home theater sound systems are commonplace, which is only a matter of time, and movies are instantly available for download viewing, who goes to the Park Mall to see a flick? How does the Hollywood of 2020 fund $250M+ pictures without a box office?