Saturday, January 26, 2008

Tsunami Beforemath - Shifting Sentiments

The nation's desire for change in government has reached perhaps its greatest level since the Civil War. While not old enough to recall the 60s, I think today's anger and disgust exceeds that time.

South Carolina handily awarded Barack Obama a victory, an unprecedented event in the history of the nation that brings tears to my eyes. South Carolina all but cements the recent polls that tell us that if the Democrats can just pull it together and hand him the nod, CHECKMATE. Obama beats ANY GOP opponent. No Republican can touch him. Good luck and God Bless, Barack. My prayers are with you.

In tomorrow's New York Times, Caroline Kennedy will formally endorse Barack Obama for President.

On presidential items GOP, Florida Governor Charlie Crist has formally endorsed John McCain for the GOP nomination. Damn! McCain has a chance against Hillary. Romney does not.

Further news of the blue tsunami was noted by blogger cpmaz at his blog, Random Musings. You can read his post. The key takeaway is that voter registrations are significantly shifting away from the GOP. Both Democrats and Independents are gaining at the expense of Republicans. The phenomena occurs across the country. Perhaps the teaming masses of lower class Americans are tired of stuffing Cheney's pigs. Word is that some think they deserve health insurance. Bush's plan to cut taxes on corporations? ExxonMobile, double digit billion profit a quarter, should pay less taxes. Ahh, the GOP, motivating voters nationwide.

In Arizona, and in particular CD 5, registration numbers are trending in a direction that gives Harry Mitchell cause for hope and a chance to defeat his challenger. Remember that Arizona is the fastest growing state in the nation. Below are percent increases in registered voters since the 2006 election:

Democrats: 6.5 percent (5458 voters)
Republicans: 0.15 percent (208 voters)
Independents: 8.5 (7397 voters)

In case the reader is not the statistician I've become, allow me to put it differently. For every one individual that registered as a Republican, over 26 registered as a Democrat and over 35 registered as an Independent. I don't live in District 5, but that's a tsunami.

Mitchell cannot kick back and relax. The GOP still enjoys a substantial majority in terms of total registered voters, and he faces an extraordinary challenge to keep his seat. If the Democrats nominate Obama, Harry will win. If the GOP nominates Romney, Harry can win. If we have McCain against Clinton, oh Harry, may God help you. Good luck.

I won't be saying much about CD-3 (not my turf), but Shadegg (R-AZ CD 3) slipped this week and finds himself slapped with formal allegations of campaign finance fraud. I seem to recall a smiling mug shot of a jackass. Apparently Shadegg's PAC played shenanigans to get around that pesky $2300 limit. Shadegg's race is also heating up to become contested and the DCCC has now targeted his district with formidable challenger Bob Lord, who is giving Shadegg a run for his money, literally. Some believe the next FEC reports will show the two neck and neck with funds raised and cash on hand. If Shadegg needs GOP support to keep his seat, it cuts into the resources available to challenge Mitchell. Good luck, Bob.

The news from the north will certainly bring a smile to our local CD-8 Congresswoman Giffords, who faces a credible challenge from AZ Senate president Tim Bee. Events to our north dramatically reduce the odds Bee will get any NRCC calvary. Bee will raise a good sum, but he will not catch her war chest. The Bee machine faces a rocket sled on rails. When Democrats go to the primary on February 5, you can pretty much bet on smiling greeters in Giffords for Congress T-shirts requesting primary voter signatures to put her on the 2008 ballot. Will we see clipboard equipped Bee units doing the same? I don't know. Bee may have a trained legion all prepared to go.

Derek, got clipboards? I mean no disrespect and wish you well. Do not underestimate the work involved to get quantity AND QUALITY of good, solid names on hundreds of pages and remember that those having already signed a Bee or Giffords petition will not be valid. Other than prior signers, I'm not clear who can't sign Derek's petition. Can any registered voter?

Another slip closer to home, LD-26 (this blog primarily covers LD-26, CD-8, and the presidential races) Senator Charlene Pesquera had a minor slip regarding financial reporting. It had no impact on anything and word is that everyone's dismissing it as a mistake on the part of a newbie. The Democrats say she is running again. Others say she is not. Charlene, this is how to lose. It's a Senate seat in a challenging district. Resolve the ambiguity. Now.

Recent press regarding fundraising suggests the GOP itself is floundering miserably compared to the Democrats. Perhaps McCain will falter for financial reasons. Still, even though he has money, go Mitt!

I'm trying so hard not to get too pumped about Obama. Watching it evaporate on the night of the fifth is going to hurt. Yes, I will vote for her over her GOP rival, but I won't like it. This blog enthusiastically endorses Barack Obama for President.



Blogger roger said...

I choked up at Obama's was mesmerizing...I have never seen anything like it.

I agree with much of what you said about the races in Congress throughout the state as well. I have said this for months and think I am more and more right every day (smile)...the GOP has more territory to defend...with less. The fact that they are trying, stupidly, to get back what they lost last time (5 and 8) will suck needed resources for not...and will jeopardize Renzi's old seat (I think its gone already...) and Shaddegg's as well. Mark my words on this...please.

Last, I reintroduce the post I did tonight about Hillary's event which stunned me... In retrospect, the only thing I can think, is:

A) she is hoping to win in Tennessee to show she can win a southern state (black vote is very large, but far less than in SC and GA...)

B) Strategy...she is trying to bait Obama into working hard in states like this, allowing her to win delegate rich Cali, New York, Illinois, New also makes him look like a one trick pony...the Southern candidate.

But, see what I say here:

A little analysis (but I echo in ways that I can’t even say, what Rex just said).

I just saw Hillary’s speech and was dumbfounded. Know that I am speaking now completely and uttterly as analyst Kral and nothing more. My wife, who supports Hillary agreed.

What on earth was that rally? She is in Tennessee, speaking on a college campus, with a double row of people in back of her, most African-American, introduced by an African-American woman, speaking about the next generation and to college students…and in Tennessee, where Obama very likely could win.

I don’t get it….but I think it is also telling. We both agreed that she should have been at a big rally in LA, with Mayor Villaragosa beside her, rallying for super Tuesday. She should be with her strengths…right now…showing it. Instead, it looked transparent, boring, and actually rather pathetic. The message was clearly to attempt in some desperate sort of way to say that she can can compete with Obama in his biggest area of voter strength to this point.

It tells me that they are VERY worried or she would have been in Texas, California, New York, or Illinois.

I was truly stunned. And the speech, unremarkable…at best.

I honestly was a bit scared to post this because I had just heard the best speech I have personally witnessed on TV out of Obama. I should have been saying what Rex did above. But I was so stunned, I had to post this and ask if any saw what I did???

1/26/2008 8:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Roger, I agree the Clinton speech was weak while the Obama speech was inspiring. The Democrats are in the driver's seat, although McCain continues to gain strength.

The democrats can screw up by choosing Clinton. The GOP can screw up by nominating any candidate other than McCain. I hope they nominate Huckabee, but even the GOP can't be that stupid, and they are so stupid!

If the democrats pick Clinton, then they really show they are too stupid to run this country. If they were smart, they would choose Obama, and they would shit can that Pelosi twit and maybe Reid too.

Pelosi is worthless. We need real democrats that have the balls to do what's right for this country. Bush and Cheney deserve impeachment more than anyone who has ever been in that office.

They lie, murder, suppress, and violate the constitution, and the filthy GOP impeached Clinton for sex with an intern? Bush has murdered or destroyed the lives of millions.

He gets a free pass. That's his whole life. A free pass to do anything.

1/26/2008 10:47 PM  
Blogger Tony GOPrano said...

Sorry X4MR I don't buy your Obama love fest. The Clintons's will use this and you know how (fairly or un-fairly). And once John McCain is the GOP nominee (you said it here the d's are terrified of McCain being the nominee), he will win! And help AZ GOP candidates too!

1/27/2008 12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The media would have you believe that the Dem race is two people - in fact, there are three people running and when you consider that the third person, John Edwards, is ignored by all the media except for Keith Olbermann, it's a wonder he survives at all. I hope everyone will look at the youtube of his South Carolina speech,
and see what strength and passion this man fights for people - PEOPLE - and remember that this race, for Democrats, is not limited to the big two!

1/27/2008 11:07 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

I would happily vote for Edwards, but he stands no chance against the Hillary machine. Obama does, although it's a long shot.

Tony is probably right. McCain is stronger every day, and the Dems will pick her.

Go Mitt!

1/27/2008 11:46 AM  

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