Monday, December 11, 2006

2008—Arizona CD 8, LD 26, and LD 28

Tucson, Arizona—Anyone reading this blog can quickly surmise that I am not tapped into the local political scene like a Tedski, Michael, or Framer, whose Arizona Eighth is becoming quite an impressive blog for material on red turf. I do have some radar regarding three particular districts and will post content on them as the occasion arises.

First and probably stating the obvious is that democrats Pesquiera and Saradnik won in LD 26 due to a GOP meltdown nominating extremists who could not win in the general election. LD 26 turf is quite pink, but it is not extreme, and it will be interesting to see who the GOP puts forward in LD 26 next time around. While independent, I lean blue, and Pesquiera and Saradnik should enjoy every moment, because unless the GOP slips yet again and nominates nutcases, their days are probably numbered.

Now, Frank Antoneri, a clear GOP up and comer who has something to say and can command the respect of a room when he speaks, a man I consider five times the horsepower of Randy Graf, has some choices to make. He could pull a repeat and go after CD 8 again, but that wouldn’t be my move. I think Frank would lose against Giffords in 2008.

I actually live in LD 28, where Giffords was replaced by Paula Aboud, who defeated Ted Downing for the Senate seat. Now we’re talking pure blue. I consider it very safe to say that democrats will not make the mistake in LD 28 that republicans made in LD 26. I don’t have profound intelligence, but everything points to LD 28 remaining blue, well, forever. Democrats won’t be nominating any communists for LD 28 house or senate anytime soon.

Regarding CD 8, if GOP is smart, they will learn from the 2006 mistake and go central, and not Frank (yet). Again, I lean left, but if I were scheming for the red side, I would slam dunk Frank into the LD 26 Senate in 2008, waste no time on LD 28, and for CD 8, the best bet against Giffords, who will be a most formidable incumbent candidate, the name currently on my radar is Tim Bee. More on that later.

Tim and Gabrielle would be quite a race in 2008. Tim is also young, energetic, intelligent, and well respected. He is not a kook.

I have met Frank Antoneri and heard him speak. If he can be patient about Washington and apply himself in Arizona, LD 26 Senate is his for the taking in 2008. He could build some credentials, lay some track, and start targeting his entry into Washington. If Tim Bee succeeds in 2008 for CD 8, Frank would have other choices. If not, Frank could try for CD 8 in 2010. But let's face it, Gabrielle Giffords has been steadily getting stronger ever since we started paying attention, and my sense is that this will continue.

He has some work to do, but my sense of smell for upward potential is very accurate. Frank Antoneri is someone to watch.


Blogger thinkright said...

Frank lives in LD 30

12/12/2006 3:41 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Well, that's interesting. If Tim Bee were to go after CD 8, someone would be needed to fill his shoes in LD 30.

And you still have a great shot at LD 26, although my understanding is that Carol Somers has had enough. Maybe if she were asked really nice?

12/12/2006 4:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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12/13/2006 12:16 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

test using google sign in and ie6

12/13/2006 12:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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12/13/2006 12:30 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

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12/13/2006 12:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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12/13/2006 12:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sirocco posting:

Tim Bee is the best R candidate I can think of to run against
Giffords in 2008 ... and if she gets past 2008, I suspect she's good
for however long she wants to stay in office.

Also, a Bee v. Giffords race might, I think, be that rarity in modern
politics: two decent, intelligent, thoughtful candidates focusing on
issues rather than mud.

I second your comments on Frank -- while I disagree with his views in
general, he definitely comes across as thoughtful and forceful, and
I really look forward to getting to read his views (and pose some
questions) on AZ 8.

12/14/2006 7:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sirocco posting:

x4mr, I was not able to post using my login under either Safari or Firefox Up until a couple days ago I could (with Firefox at least). Possibly related to your recent upgrade of the blogger account?

What happens when I attempt to post is I always get a message saying anonymost posting is not allowed, despite entering my login, password and the verification word.

12/14/2006 7:24 AM  
Blogger liza.oliver said...

When Tim Bee became the majority leader in the AZ state senate, I immediately suspected that he is the Republican party favorite for CD8 in 2008. Their plan must be to expand his name recognition as well as legislative experience so that it rivals that of a two year incumbent. Given that the district has a Republican majority in registered voters, I can see where this could be a viable plan.

Furthermore, Gifford's fortunes are largely dependent upon how the Democrats are perceived by voters in 2008, as a freshman representative is unlikely to distinguish herself one way or the other. She will have nothing much to run on other than a two year voting record.

Tim Bee represents LD30 where he is well liked and respected. If he successfully manages that perception for the next two years and acquires name recognition throughout the district, he will most definitely be a strong candidate for the Republican party. If they turn out the vote, the Democrats could lose the district. However, having said that, 2008 could be very rough for the Republicans because we have every reason to believe that things will only get worse as the Bush presidency plays itself out.

12/14/2006 12:35 PM  

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