Saturday, November 11, 2006

Before the Next Superpower

The Associated Press noted a new death toll Thursday for Iraqi civilians that far exceeds the estimates released thus far, 150,000 killed in the war.

In your Tucson Friday morning paper was a graph illustrating the casualties in deaths per day on average per month from April of 2005 through this month. There is a possibility of some error for the end months (4/05 and 11/06), but other than that, you see the equivalent to the left with the multiplication performed to give actual fatalities per month.

Folks coming here before should find the graph familiar. It has the same look and feel as the graphs of our American soldiers dying in Afghanistan and Iraq on a monthly basis. Nuff said except to note the obvious: It's getting worse.

If we are to believe Wesley Clark, invading Iraq was actually part of a Bush Administration 5 year plan to invade 7 countries while the United States has a 10-15 year window of opportunity to conquer Islamic countries and bring them over to our side before the next superpower emerges, since the 1991 Gulf War showed the "Soviet Union" was in no position to do anything should the United States choose to invade another country.

Don't take my word for a thing on this one. Click above, listen to the General, and draw your own interpretation. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and then Iran. 5 years, 7 countries. I really don't think Clark is lying and consider it safe to conclude the memo is reality, but what does it mean? Remember, it is a memo. That doesn't mean we were "all the way there." What cannot be disputed is that we were seriously thinking about it, and that ties to Liza's remarks at TDP this summer:

when George Bush was given the presidency in 2000, PNAC members became the most powerful leaders in the Bush Administration. You’ll recognize these names: Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, "Scooter" Libby, Eliot Abrams, Richard Perle, and a few others. The Bush Administration’s foreign policy and more specifically, the invasion and occupation of Iraq, can only be understood within the context of Rebuilding America’s Defenses, PNAC’s 90 page blueprint for American global hegemony in the 21st century.

Much has been written about PNAC, as you might imagine, so there are better places to start than the 90 page RAD publication. William Rivers Pitt wrote these two editorials in February, 2003, for Of Gods and Mortals and Empire and Blood Money. These editorials provide a good overview of PNAC.

It is interesting that RAD was published in 2000, but does not address Osama bin Laden style terrorism. It is as though these guys just didn’t get it. It might explain why the Bush Administration rigidly adheres to the idea that the "War on Terrorism" is a war against nations. Nonetheless, 9-11 was their much longed for "catalyzing event" that launched the first war on their agenda, regime change in Iraq.

RAD is long and boring, but it provides some incredible insight into the foreign policy objectives of the Bush Administration.


I invite the reader to consider that this set of folks led by Cheney and Rumsfeld, christened and indoctrinated during the 50's and serving in the 60's and 70's under folks like Nixon during the Cold War, applied Cold War thinking to the events of September 11 and the world situation at that time.

They've fought the big red bear for so long, they're gearing up for the next one.

Before the next Superpower!

What emerging superpower? China. So we need to invade these 7 nations to get them to "our side" before China moves in? Think I'm insane? Find and play the video of Reagan telling us that Ortega and Nicaragua was about to conquer the free world as we know it. Now that Ortega is back on the scene, saw that tape again recently, and it sounds even more ridiculous now than it did at the time.

Is China huge? Damned straight China is huge. They implement the equivalent infrastructure of Houston in a day and a half or something like that. They are going places, but this means we should invade seven countries because if we don't they will? The Chinese going into Somalia? Well, actually, they are. But this is the 21st Century. New thinking is required.

If you sink deep into cold war thinking (where Cheney still lives), you recall a world where the USA and USSR played this weird game. Countries were literally seen as chess pieces on a chess board. Instead of going at each other directly (certain suicide), the USA and USSR played chess with the rest of the planet. Remember the 1960 Nixon / Kennedy debates bickering about which parts of the world were "free" and which were communist? Consider that the entire Vietnam War was one nasty fight over a single piece.

What's a 21st Century Elected Official to think?

Well, first they might ask whether this notion of superpower even applies anymore. What is, after all, a superpower in this century, in this globalized high tech 21st century political economy?

There was a brief period of time after the USSR disintegrated when the USA could regard itself as the "remaining superpower" simply because the other one went away, but quickly, far more quickly than the likes of Cheney can understand, this concept became obsolete, as did the notion that some entity resembling the old USSR would resurface with a similar menu of threats.

The next major forces as nations which must be dealt with certainly include China and India, but the superpower label no longer applies. Their military designs on us are as minimal as ours towards them. They have no desire to occupy us, blow us up, and couldn't give a tinker's cuss who we worship or how we govern ourselves.

The Bush Administration's foreign policy is based on, or at least significantly influenced by, obsolete ideas held by old school thinkers I frankly believe are too arrogant to question themselves. Unlike the deeply insightful and extremely intelligent Robert McNamara, the likes of Cheney and Rumsfeld seem bent on command and control. They want to conquer to protect their precious oil, and make no mistake, ENERGY looms huge in this century, but command and control is dead in all but a few situations.

Is China hungry and getting more hungry for oil? Probably. Would China invade the middle east to get it? I think not. They'll figure something else out.

I have a better idea for all of us. Let's kick the oil habit. The entire planet will thank us for it.


Blogger sirocco said...

I just want to note, for the record, I wrote a graduate thesis in 1990 or 91 about China being the next super-power, starting about 2010, and no later than 2030.

11/11/2006 7:00 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...


Have no clue who you are, but you have sparked my attention in the last couple weeks, maybe here or maybe at another blog.

Not meaning to flatter, but I smell horsepower.

I am not the least surprised that you wrote such a thesis.

Not sure how this will occur, but there have been moments I have wondered if you were someone who is flying to Washington this weekend.

Naw. Couldn't be.

11/11/2006 9:51 PM  
Blogger Liza said...

This is interesting about General Wesley Clark. I read his book, "Winning Modern Wars - Iraq, Terrorism, and the American Empire" when it was first published in 2003. Clearly, General Clark had studied PNAC's "Rebuilding America's Defenses" and understood the truth behind the invasion of Iraq. However, he only mentioned PNAC once and that was in relation to their now famous 1998 letter to Bill Clinton.

Indeed, it is all very real and historians will get it right. But I have never understood how PNAC was able to fly under the radar because they operate in plain view and their documents are so easily accessible. I have heard almost nothing about them except in the independent media. It seems that public sentiment in favor of the invasion of Iraq would have been greatly diminished if people had known the full extent of PNAC's plan for the American Empire that right wing idealogues and warmonters developed in the pre-911 1990's.

The corporate media, of course, was complicit in hawking the Bush administration's case for war and it's very possible that most Americans alive today will never know the full extent of the deception and the lies. PNAC, of course, would have landed high on history's trash heap except for the fact that the founding members became the nation's most powerful leaders under George Bush. Indeed, these warmongers were Cold War relics who were just simply flat out wrong. Tragically, they were able to get the first war on their agenda, the invasion of Iraq. Iraq is now in a civil war, hundreds of thousands are dead or maimed, families are shattered, and economic development has been set back several decades. This is the nation that owns the second largest reserves of the world's remaining oil supply.

With Rumsfeld gone and Bolton on his way out, it remains to be seen what will happen to Dick Cheney. Its very unlikely now that he will get to bomb Iran, but he still needs to be concerned about Iraq's oil and that is reason enough for him to stay on until 2008.

11/13/2006 3:31 PM  
Blogger kautilyahegel said...

India to prepare for all out war with China- by Kautilya Hegel
Director, Institute of War, Tuesday, November 14, 2006 8:00 PM, Washington DC. (1) MILITARILY DEFEND HINDU NEPAL: The Maoism and Maoists of Nepal and India presents greatest threat to Indian security. India should deploy troops in Nepal to restore Hindu Monarchy and Hindu-Buddhist Rule in Nepal. Nepali Maoists are enemies of India and India should fight Maoists in Nepal before they capture political power in Nepal. India should deploy retired Gurkha soldiers and Nepali citizens residents of India to take up arms to militarily defeat Maoists in Nepal. Foreign conspirators that profited by heroin production of Burma’s golden Triangle, has now made profits in Heroin opium Golden Crescent in Afghanistan. The Opium heroin Mafia seeks to make Nepal the new world center for the production of Opium and Heroin.
(2) MILITARILY SUPPORT THE BUDDHIST REVOLUTION IN TIBET: India should openly support the Tibetan Buddhists and all minorities in the hilly regions of China that account for 65 percent of landmass of China but only 15 percent of the population of China. India should promote Buddhism for the secession of Buddhists from Communist China to create a Buddhist China.
(3) MILITARILY SUPPORT BUDDHIST FALUN GONG: The Falun Gong represents Mahayana Buddhists and their supporters number over 100 million in China. India should provide political, military and economic support to Falun Gong activists in China to engineer the partition of China on grounds of Religion. Chinese Buddhists do not want to live under Communist Rule in China.
(4) MILITARY LESSONS OF KARGIL WAR: The Kargil War established the primacy of High Mountain warfare stating that the camouflaged sharp shooters entrenched high up in mountains can bring the vehicular traffic to stand still. The Kargil War doctrine would allow Tibetan revolutionaries to stop the vehicular traffic in Tibet and entire Mountainous regions of China that account for 65 percent of total landmass of China but only 15 percent of population of China.
(5) TRAITOR MENON BM KAUL: India lost the 1962 War with China because of the treason of Krishna Menon and General B.M. Kaul. Now India has a patriotic Sikh as a prime Minister and a Sikh as the Chief of Army in India. Sikh Prime Minister Manmohan Singh must prove that he is a patriotic India by leading India to victory to wipe out the sin of Congress Party that treason committed by Jawaharlal Nehru in 1962 did to India. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was a traitor and a foreign spy. Nehru gave Tibet to China because China had Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose as prisoner. It is moral imperative that India should prepare for an all out war with China and take the revenge of 1962 defeat.
(6) GENERAL MOBILIZATION OF INDIA: President should declare the State of emergency and order the compulsory military draft for the entire adult population between the age of 20 and 30 years. Every India must serve free for five years compulsory military service.
Professor Kautilya Hegel, Director- Election Watch, Inc.,,;

11/14/2006 7:18 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Not prepared to respond to that last post, but did want to say it's good to hear from you, Liza, and that I was hoping you would see my reposting of some of your remarks this summer.

When I heard Clark speaking, your words came to mind.

I do think all of this will come out over time as history's ever increasing precision dissects with brutal hindsight.

I think humanity is at a pivotal moment where old school thinking and the new reality are clashing. The bloodshed associated with this clash is tragic.

Cheney is obsolete. I don't know who the new thinkers are, but breakthroughs and new ideas are necessary.

11/14/2006 11:14 PM  
Blogger Liza said...

I read your blog all the time.

11/15/2006 4:38 PM  

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