Monday, May 17, 2010

Kentucky and Arizona Flirt with New York

The Kentucky Republican primary contest between establishment Trey Grayson and tea's Rand Paul closely mirrors the Arizona Republican primary between establishment John McCain and tea's JD Hayworth. Grayson and McCain have huge big name support but have been targeted for defeat by the tea party elements in their states.

In Kentucky, US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has endorsed Grayson, and Grayson is a well connected and approved part of the Kentucky GOP machine, which thinks little of the recalcitrant dentist known by close associates as arrogant and, well, not particularly nice. Make no mistake, Grayson is the superior human being, but Rand Paul will win in the primary.

In Arizona, Jan Brewer, John Kyl, Sarah Palin, Grover Norquist, Trent Franks, Jeff Flake, John Shadegg (the list goes on) have endorsed John McCain. McCain probably wishes Arizona's primary were this week like Kentucky's because he is probably still ahead (barely), as his incumbency and name recognition give him a formidable edge unavailable to non-incumbent Grayson. However, all developments point to a deteriorating situation for McCain. Three more months at the current rate of decay puts McCain on the chopping block against any adversary, even JD Hayworth.

In both races, the Democrats are salivating. In Kentucky, Democrat Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo will be delighted to face Rand Paul, who is on record saying some rather crazy things. In Arizona, few would be happier than Democrat Rodney Glassman to see a JD Hayworth nomination in August. Hayworth, of course, has never said or done anything problematic for a general election to the US Senate.

Both Kentucky and Arizona are flirting with New York, as in New York's House CD-23 election last year where a tea takeover ousted an established GOP candidate. Tea baggers squealed and howled with delight (while Democrats smiled in silence) about taking their country back, and then the Democrats won a seat held by Republicans for decades.


Blogger Sirocco said...

By all measures November should be a horrible electoral cycle for Democrats, with all the anti-incumbency feelings and Dems simply having far more incumbents ... Republicans sure do seem to be working hard to help the Dems mitigate the damage, though.

5/18/2010 6:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course the Republicans will pick up some seats and shout about it, but Democrats have a good chance of making a real dent. This post is right that both Hayworth and Paul are very vulnerable in the general election environment. The "anti-incumbent" noise hardly applies to either Glassman or Mongiardo.

I think Paul said he was against social security and wanted to abolish Medicare. Hayworth said something about people marrying a horse, or a dog, whatever.

It's a shame your gal Giffords won't have the luxury of running against a tea KKKook. However, since Paton came out strongly for the immigration law, she will get the Latino vote. She's in a tough spot. Somehow, she has to REALLY, REALLY get feet on the street and generate REAL numbers over all of that tea tempest.

I would love to see tea triumph across the country in the primaries and then get brutally slaughtered in November. I would love to see Hayworth, Paul, that Rubio meat head in Florida, the Utah morons, all go down in flames in the general.

5/18/2010 7:58 AM  
Anonymous Kentuckian said...

I don't know about Arizona, but McCain sounds like he's falling apart.

Rand Paul is going to win the nomination and like you suspect, will probably lose the general. Mitch McConnell is no fan of Rand Paul, and neither is a lot of the Republican machine in Kentucky. The Grayson supporters will probably just not vote in the general, giving the edge to Mongiardo, unless more dirt about Mongiardo comes out.

Even though they spin this tea party stuff as good for Republicans, it isn't. Past allies are now adversaries.

5/18/2010 1:19 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Conway will probably beat Mongiardo as enough dirt is already out.

5/18/2010 4:45 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

We all knew Rand Paul would win, but wow, he has trounced Trey Grayson in what could be called a landslide. This has to be embarrassing for Mitch McConnell.

I knew that Conway was gaining on Mongiardo, but still rather new to KY, I didn't realize by how much. Anon is right that Conway appears to have won. This is a good thing.

The Paul(R) vs. Conway(D) race is a dead heat for what has always been a Republican seat. This will be an interesting race.

5/18/2010 5:27 PM  

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