Wednesday, October 21, 2009

NY CD 23 An Illuminating Race

Republican John McHugh’s resignation from New York’s CD 23 to become Secretary of the Army has resulted in an upcoming election that provides a preview of coming attractions for the possible bifurcation of the GOP between semi-rationality and unbridled kookville. The race provides the clearest distinction to date of the forces and players involved.

New York’s CD 23 has had Republican representatives for the last 140 years, yet in the next month it may elect a Democrat. We see the very fissure discussed at this blog on many occasions over the past couple years.

A couple months ago this race was a slam dunk for the GOP with their nominee, Dierdre Scozzafava, Assemblywoman for District 122 of the New York State Assembly, the strong front runner over Democrat candidate, Bill Owens, an attorney and law professor. However, since Scozzafava is pro-choice and has no problem with same sex marriage, the kooks went bat shit and launched their own candidate, Doug Hoffman, as the nominee of the Conservative Party of New York.

Commenter Stephen mentioned the Conservative Party back in April at the T-shirt post illustrating the vitriol and hatred of the teabagger extremists. The NY CD 23 race allows us to substantially enhance the clarity of the situation.

From the endorsements, we can readily identify the camps:

Bill Owens (Democrat)
Sen. Chuck Shumer, State Sen. Darrel Aubertine, State Sen. David Valesky, United Healthcare Workers East, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama

Diedre Scozzafava (Republican)
Rep. John Boehner, ATV Club, Wish List, State Sen. Betty Little, State Sen. Joe Griffo, Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers, GOP leader Brian Kolb, lots of GOP Assembly members, the NRA, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Hensarling (former GOP Study Committee Chair)

Doug Hoffman (Conservative)
Concerned Women PAC, Fred Thompson, Club for Growth, Susan B. Anthony List, American Conservative Union, Gary Bauer, NY Right to Life PAC, Michelle Malkin, Bill Kristol, RedState, Mark Levin, Dick Armey, Rep. Michele Bachmann

Note that while Scozzafava has the endorsement of numerous currently elected officials and former elected officials, Hoffman primarily has the support of columnists (Malkin/Kristol), clubs (see above), and talk radio (Levin). The key distinguishing feature is that the Conservatives DON’T CARE if this split hands the seat to the Democrats. Prior to the frothing and foaming, Scozzafava had a cakewalk. The latest poll puts Owens at 33% over Scozzafava’s 29% and Hoffman’s 23%. The GOP is desperately trying to push Scozzafava back on top. If they fail, we are talking about a district that has been red for 140 years turning blue.



Blogger Eli Blake said...

Senator John Boehner

Don't scare me like that, man. Boehner is bad enough as minority leader of the house, God forbid he ever ends up in the Senate.

Throw in that in New Jersey the GOP gubernatorial nominee made the mistake a few weeks ago of claiming that he was a 'conservative' rather than a 'moderate' and is now stuck bleeding votes to a moderate Republican running as an independent and it looks like the GOP is continuing to self-destruct.

10/21/2009 10:27 AM  
Anonymous Mariana said...

Michelle Malkin, Michelle Bachmann... I guess Ann Coulter is either too smart or too liberal to join this club.

10/21/2009 10:41 AM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

Markos Moulitsas (of Daily Kos) has described Scozzafava as being more liberal than Owens (the actual Democratic candidate).

To be fair, if the situation were reversed and you had what should be a very safe Democratic district (Grijalva's, say), and the "mainstream" Democratic candidate in an open election for the seat turned out to be a very conservative Democrat, more liberal Democrats would be raising hell, and wanting a more liberal candidate in the seat.

10/21/2009 11:06 AM  
Anonymous Observer said...

Sirocco has a good point about CD 7, but I think x4mr is correct in suggesting that NY CD 23 is reflective of a nationwide phenomenon.

10/21/2009 11:53 AM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

I don't think there is any question of there being a nationwide debate within the Republican party right now - Crist/Rubio in Florida is another example, and Specter/Toomey in PA was before Specter swapped parties. (Of course, now the shoe is on the other foot there in the Specter/Sestak race).

10/21/2009 1:53 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Eli - thanks for the correction. I took care of it, and I agree with you.

I honestly cannot grasp what conservatives are thinking. We will never return to 1994, let alone 1980. They will certainly prevail in isolated circumstances, but they fall further and further behind clinging to increasingly obsolete positions.

10/21/2009 3:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wheres the line? Democrats in Republican Districts are not liberal enough,Republicans in Democratic Districts are not conservative enough so we get the water downed version of both. Slap me and call me stupid but dont we elect these people based on their values? If I think the canidate reflects what my beliefs are he has my vote. We have no idea anymore who these people are any more. The political landscape of being right is so far left that your not sure of your vote is left of right or right of right and then whats left? confused?so am I and I wrote it. Be left or right and me the voter will take it from there.

10/31/2009 9:01 AM  

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