Sunday, February 10, 2008

The Meltdown Scenario

This blog has posted several times about the still very real possibility of a blue tsunami where the GOP suffers a crushing defeat in November so extensive and devastating that a new party must rise from ashes of the one that got torched. Will it happen? I don't know.

Another possibility about as terrifying for the Democrats has also emerged as a distinct possibility that could in fact occur, a complete blue meltdown trying to nominate its candidate for president. Several bloggers including Thinkright and Framer have written as has Frank Rich in this morning's New York Times about the Democratic super delegates.

Barack Obama’s impressive victories this weekend continue to point to a surging Democratic voice for his nomination against the wishes of the more established candidate backed by the more traditional blue machinery. Obama’s surge shines a bright light on the Clinton engine and reveals nothing pretty. Any nasty Clinton antics to squash the rising star damage her ability to win in November.

Conservative George Will today even declared what is becoming increasingly obvious. If the Democrats nominate Barack Obama, they win the election. The choice is a no brainer for the reasons he states. As happens so often in life, the obvious can be impossible to see for the person standing in the middle. Obama’s strength is gaining. Clinton’s is declining. He out raised her almost three to one last month. She has had to borrow $5 million to keep fighting him.

While it remains possible that somehow the public will shift and start pouring support in Hillary’s direction and Obama’s strength fizzles, I am starting to doubt this will occur. If it does, okay. If she wins the nomination with the support and enthusiasm of the party, I don my clothespin and vote for her in November.

If Obama gets the nod, without question it will be due to the support and love of the people backing the candidate and his message. McCain will take history as the first white candidate to lose the presidency to an African American. I respect McCain and attach no negatives to that distinction.

The meltdown scenario involves the Democratic party leadership and the Clintons putting personal preference, ego, or any other self-serving agenda before the will of the voters, forcing a Clinton nomination in spite of public outcry for Obama. If this is done, the outrage will be unprecedented.

Regardless of what the McCain hating lunatics like Dobson, Coulter, and the rest of the increasingly irrelevant homophobic, abstinence obsessed goons think, McCain won fair and square running a clean campaign with integrity. The GOP bifurcation is of little concern. Eventually the tantrums will die down.

The Obama Clinton bifurcation, if allowed to occur in the brutality of overthrowing the will of the people, could produce a civil war tearing the Democrats to pieces. For the sake of the country, the delicate delegates had better search their souls and search deep. If the people of the party want Hillary, so be it. If they want Obama, SAME THING. If they make the mistake of thwarting what is right for the sake of another agenda, they will get their just desserts, and being responsible for resulting storm will haunt them the rest of their lives.

If Hillary loves the people as much as she claims, she will respect their voice, even if it says, "Thanks but no thanks."


Blogger thinkright said...

The GOP in-fighting will die down within the next few months...McCain will pick a Veep that handles the dissent.

The Dems won't have much time to get their house in order once Clinton takes the victory from Obama. Even if she wins without the "super delegates", she'll get negative sooner rather than later.

Maybe your "Blue Tsunami" will wash upon the shores of the Dems, not the Republicans...
Can you imagine the damage of this scenario for the future of the Democratic party...disinfranchising the black & the youth vote? You think GWB is hated by the left...Hillary could do worse damage.

2/10/2008 4:10 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...


In general we agree. Of course the infantile anti-McCain tissy fits of Dobson and the rest will fade within a few weeks. The GOP is way too practical and pragmatic to give up the presidency over some Jesus freaks. By the end of the month the tantrum will end.

If the Democrats are stupid enough to thwart the will of their own support and force an unwanted nominee over the preferred candidate, they deserve what happens to them.

The Obama surge is serious. SERIOUS. Clinton is smarter than Eggplant. I would hope, HOPE, that she can figure out what a couple of bloggers in Tucson can figure out.

2/10/2008 4:49 PM  
Blogger thinkright said...

Our own Gabby Giffords is a "super delegate" you think she'll throw Obama under the bus? She does appear to be in with the Clinton-istas.

If her super-delegated-ness screws the pooch on this, will you still be as supportive?

2/10/2008 5:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you please explain what Obama's message is? I like the guy and I listen, and listen, and listen. But all I hear are platitudes and generalities, not much substance. I mean it's nice to "love America," "help seniors," and "provide medical coverage." How in heck does he plan on doing any of it? I think as soon as the dems pick Obama, he will face scrutiny on a whole new level from the media and republicans. He's a quality guy, but a lightweight on substance. No gravitas, if you will.

2/10/2008 7:04 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

The details do not belong in such speeches.

Blog for Arizona (link in right column) has Obama's education plan.

The information is available at his web site. He has an issues link on the menu bar with links to the following:

Civil Rights
Energy & Environment
Foreign Policy
Health Care
Homeland Security
Seniors and Social Security
Additional Issues (Art, Child Advocacy, Katrina, Science, Transportation..)

His 64 page Blueprint for Change is available here.

2/10/2008 7:37 PM  
Blogger Tony GOPrano said...

SUPER DELEGATES. Remember that come your Denver Convention. Obama may go into the convention with more delegates, but Hillary will get the Super Delegates. I smell blood on the floor in Denver. The GOP will unite behind John McCain and whoever he chooses as VP. If Obama loses to Hillary because of those Super Delegates, watch for implosion by the dems.

2/10/2008 9:23 PM  
Blogger thinkright said...

What about Gabby, the super-delegate, voting for Clinton instead of Obama...would you still support her?

2/11/2008 7:30 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

The question is premature and slightly Rovian (would you vote for X if you knew fictitious Y?).

I praise publicly and criticize privately. I will answer you this way.

I have never been shy with my criticism, and she will have the utmost clarity regarding my sentiments.

2/11/2008 9:21 AM  
Blogger thinkright said...

"Rovian"? I love it. It wasn't meant to be, but thanks for the compliment. ;)

2/11/2008 10:32 AM  
Blogger Liza said...

Giffords, as a superdelegate, will vote for Hillary who is favored by the Israel Lobby.

All pro-Israel Jews are going to support Hillary and Giffords is a pro-Israel Jew.

So, if you like having the US at war in the Mideast from now until the end of time, and if you like what is going on in Gaza, do everything you can for candidates who are backed by the Israel Lobby.

2/11/2008 1:41 PM  

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