Tuesday, January 29, 2008

GOP Sinks Romney, Nominates McCain

Tucson, Arizona. Tony GOPrano must be having a glass of bubbly this evening. Arizona Senator John McCain will win the GOP nomination for President of the United States. The candidates telegraphed the event prior to a recent debate when they warmly interacted in a circle. Not in the circle, and excluded, stood an awkward Mitt Romney. Tomorrow Giuliani withdraws and endorses McCain. Huckabee, a friend of McCain, will remain in the race to siphon the sheep away from Romney until after Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday Huckabee endorses McCain and the GOP has their candidate. If Huckabee pulls through, his displaces Joe Lieberman as the McCain VP choice.

The GOP ticket: McCain / Huckabee

Those at Sonoran Alliance must be thrilled to know the GOP has chosen a candidate whose platform essentially consists of: The jobs are never coming back. Illegal immigrants are never going home. There’s going to be a lot more war..

Hillary’s Platform In a Nutshell: Half the country hates me. I will generate an outpouring of resentment and vitriol surpassing even the unprecedented mouth foaming produced by my husband. But I can effect the change that needs to happen.

The televisions ads have hit Tucson in earnest. I think if I hear Hillary say "35 years of experience" too many more times I'm going to have to hit or hurt something.

18 Comments:

Blogger roger said...

McCain's VP choice will be Lindsay Graham...mark it. I think it has been in the works for a long long time and it was Lindsay who helped deliver SC as a firewall for McCain. Lindsay is moderate enough, southerner, a standout in the GOP, he is fun, AND he is from a Southern state.

1/29/2008 8:47 PM  
Blogger roger said...

And for something controversial and thought-provoking, what I posted on RRR about Hillary.

I fear that she is going to beat Obama. For real. Here is why.

I am rather worried about Obama really. Not about his ability to lead or his ability to inspire, but his ability to beat Hillary.

Clinton has a massive advantage in most super-Tuesday states. Even though Obama couldn’t campaign in Florida, the momentum of his win and all that we have seen on the news about him and his endorsements still only garnered him a 17% loss. That is a big worry for me.

Another worry…I said long long ago that Edwards and Obama in the race, at the same time, would be a major advantage to Hillary. It wasn’t in SC but elsewhere it is. Even in states where he pulls back to make it close, the Edward 5-15% that he pulls will be the difference to put Hillary up by 4-5%…and those being in states.

The biggest worry of all though is this. In Florida, Hillary overwhelmingly pulled white and Hispanic voters. Look at Super Tuesday…the big states…that will crush Obama if it doesn’t change. Dem leaders like Kennedy can say what they will about The Clinton’s strategy to make him a “black” candidate instead of a candidate…but it has worked…thus far. It has worked.

Last, What Rex says has some truth, there is still time to shift polls and to build momentum and there appears to be a backlash, but just how big is it? There is LITTLE time. Establishment campaigns contact voters and work early ballots…how much of this has Obama been able to do? Even tonight, only seconds after her CNN “victory” speech, my wife got a call from the campaign. Coincidence…or very well timed.

Last, I have seen little of Obama’s campaign…a bit on campus but not a ton. I have seen some commercials, but the kind of energy to win a primary versus a well connected, well organized establishment candidate? I don’t know.

I am worried. I await new polls in key Super Tuesday states…but I am worried.

1/29/2008 8:49 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Roger,

I share your concerns. We need grace from above. On the blue side, we face a clash of titans articulated and not articulated, all rolling up to the Kennedy machine vs. the Clinton machine. Higher forces and concepts transcending traditional physics must be at work.

I'm with you. In October 1962, the divine saved our ass. In November 2000, the prince of darkness slit our throats.

2008 is not a year for the Gods to be crazy.

1/29/2008 9:19 PM  
Blogger AZW88 said...

McCain loves to toss Joe Lieberman's name around, especially in regions where he can draw Independents to vote for him. He makes it sound like he will pick Lieberman for his Veep.

We KNOW that there is NO WAY that the Republicans would allow that to happen.

If Obama can pull off the upset, it will be the Veep choices that will make or break the general election.

1/29/2008 10:08 PM  
Blogger Liza said...

Roger,
Florida doesn't surprise me. I grew up there, in northern Florida. Demographically, southern Florida has large populations of Cubans and Jewish people.

I can't say that I was aware of so much support for Hillary among Hispanics and I'll be hanged if I know why. But the Jews, well, we all know who the Israel Lobby wants to be president.

Florida isn't exactly a hotbed of liberalism either. When I was growing up there, northern Florida all the way through the panhandle to the east coast was the Deep South. It is still very conservative.

I expected that Hillary would have a lot of support in Florida especially with Obama not campaigning. Hillary pulling the white vote doesn't surprise me at all. I honestly do not think you can look at Florida and conclude that Billary has been successful in making Obama a "black" candidate. What worked for Clinton in Florida is mostly just inherent in the demographics and the culture.

I'm worried too. A Hillary presidency will be devastating for this country, almost as much as another Republican presidency.

Did you say somewhere that your wife is voting for Hillary? Slap her for me, willya?

1/29/2008 11:03 PM  
Blogger Framer said...

I'd put money on Pawlenty for McCain's VP pick. That would deliver Minnesota, and Republicans all pretty much like Pawlenty. Pawlenty endorsed McCain early on I believe as well.

I liked a Romney matchup against Obama better as both had "outsider" cache, but McCain will do just fine against your nominee Hillary.

A McCain-Hillary matchup will be good for the Republican downticket all across Arizona as well.

1/29/2008 11:43 PM  
Blogger Tony GOPrano said...

And Framer believe it or not, having John McCain heading the Ticket in November will help your campaign tremendously. X4MR said it in an earlier post.....Gabby Giffords worst nightmare is having John McCain on the ballot. No, I didn't have any bubbly; way to busy working to get John McCain elected. The hard work has just begun. No time to celebrate yet. Thanks for the kind comments you left on my Blog. Much appreciated!
And NO, Joe lieberman will NOT be McCain's VP you can take that to the bank.

1/30/2008 12:50 AM  
Blogger John Rose said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

1/30/2008 7:34 AM  
Blogger John Rose said...

Four reasons I'm not concerned about Florida:
1) A third of voters were over 65 years old vs. only a quarter in other races.
2) Generally, campaigning has a lot bigger effect on Clinton supporters than Obama supporters. For a lot of voters, Obama simply needs to get his name out.
3) Clinton supporters were the only one with a reason to vote, because only their campaign was assigning any importance to Florida.
4) 10% of the voters voted early, pre-Iowa.

PS. Edwards pulling out!!!

1/30/2008 7:35 AM  
Blogger Art Jacobson said...

Hillary is tough, but at the heart of her political soul is a Rockefeller
Republican.

Obama has a high degree of charismatic punch, but he seems to believe that in solving the nation's problems we will all sit down and reason together: We must invite the foxes to sit down with the chickens.

What a choice. I'm truly sorry that Edwards is out.

1/30/2008 7:47 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

I also really liked Edwards, although I haven't said much because he never really got off the ground. I love what he says in his speeches, and I think he get the Cheney pig situation better than any other candidate.

Regarding McCain's VP, I was just reacting to all of the buzz. I have no idea who he'll pick. I had thought Lieberman for quite some time and don't know what info Tony has to strongly assert that won't happen.

I don't know where I read it, but someone talked about a McCain/Hillary ticket. Sorry, Tony, but they occur to me as almost the same person.

1/30/2008 9:11 AM  
Blogger Liza said...

john rose,
Good observations about Florida. It definitely does not mean what Billary, Inc. would like us to think that it means.

Art, Hillary has a soul? I thought that she went to the crossroads and sold it to the devil. And, I'm wondering if even he can get the presidency for her.

1/30/2008 9:31 AM  
Blogger AZW88 said...

As far as McCain picking Lieberman for Veep, I said there was no way that the Republican party bigwigs would EVER let that happen.

However, I would lay money on McCain having Joe on a very short list if McCain were running and an independent.

Edwards dropping out was inevitable and regrettable. I was torn between Obama and Edwards in my ABC thinking. (Anyone But Clinton) I guess my mind has been made up for me (and not by my wife for a change of pace).

1/30/2008 9:33 AM  
Blogger Tony GOPrano said...

OK folks, once and for all. Let's end this speculation of X4MR:

Lieberman Definitely Won’t Be McCain’s VP

When he picks a VP, I will certainly let you people know who its going to be...

1/30/2008 9:39 AM  
Blogger AZW88 said...

X4mr, The Hillary-McCain talk was from Bill Clinton, but it was about how much those two like each other and get along that the general election campaign would be boring if Hillary and John end up as their respective party nominees. (because the campaign would be so civil)

If McCain is the nominee, the only way Hillary can beat him is to hammer home the economy (it's the economy stupid... just like in '92 when Bill beat GHWB)

1/30/2008 9:41 AM  
Blogger Liza said...

From Huffingtonpost.com:

"Despite losing the state (Florida) overall by 17 points, Obama actually won more support than Clinton from voters who made up their minds in the last three days (46 percent to 38 percent), in the last week (39-31) and in the last month (47-40).

Clinton did defeat Obama among Floridians who decided on a candidate on the day of the primary. But overwhelmingly, Clinton's support came from those who made up their minds over a month ago (63 percent to 27 percent), and from early voters who used absentee ballots (50-31). Floridians began receiving absentee ballots in late December.

According to the exit polls, those early deciders and early voters made up fully 59 percent of Florida's Democratic electorate.

The results seem to indicate that Obama picked up significant momentum in Florida following his victories in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as his high-profile endorsements (49 percent of Florida voters said Ted Kennedy's support was important to their decision)."

End Quote

Well, the bottom line is that Billary, Inc. is trying to make a huge deal of this, but how can Florida be seen as indicative of anything when the election doesn't count and MOST voters probably even know that it doesn't count?

The "message" that needs to permeate this hopeless electorate and the Democratic party establishment and the Israel Lobby is that HILLARY IS NOT LIKELY TO WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION.

It will be interesting to see if Edwards endorses Obama. Obama has apparently asked for an endorsement. Do it, John!!!

You're loving this, aren't you, Framer?

1/30/2008 9:50 AM  
Blogger Liza said...

If it ends up being Hillary and McCain, all I get out of that is another Red State, Blue State election with tough fights in the usual swing states of Ohio, Florida, and maybe Pennsylvania.

I just do not think that a Billary nomination can invoke the blue tsunami that X4mr is always talking about.

Arizona will go to McCain, and people like me will vote for Nader or Bloomberg or whoever. I will never vote for a Clinton. I absolutely could not have that on my conscience.

1/30/2008 9:59 AM  
Blogger John Rose said...

Art,

Obama has a clear idea of where he wants our country to go, but he knows that in order to get the job done, we need a big enough coalition. In order to build that coalition, he'll sometimes have to listen to people he disagrees with and incorporate some of their ideas that he doesn't feel compromises his core mission.

Of course he won't open the chicken coop for the foxes, but maybe he'll throw them an offering every now and then so they don't tear the whole place down.

1/30/2008 3:43 PM  

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