Thursday, January 10, 2008

Arizona Congressional District Eight

Tucson, Arizona. Republican Arizona Senate President Tim Bee will announce his candidacy for Arizona's congressional district eight within the week, perhaps in the next day or so but probably next week after the legislature enters its 2008 session on Monday, January 14.

Once Bee announces, the jet on the runway releases its brakes and charges down the runway full throttle. Months of strategic planning and positioning launch into action and a web site that talks about exploring shifts to one that talks about defeating incumbent democrat Gabrielle Giffords. Now an official candidate, Bee can invite people to breakfasts, luncheons, and dinners, all associated with a check made payable to Tim Bee for Congress. The microphone awaits.

The election does not exist in its own little world, but within a system of many variables, some that can be controlled, many that cannot. The GOP has all but recognized that AZ CD1 has been lost. Devoting resources to AZ CD1 represents a poor investment of resources in an election cycle where GOP resources are scarce. The lowest hanging Arizona congressional fruit is Harry Mitchell in CD5. The GOP knows that money spent in CD5 is money well spent, but how much?

The answer to that question impacts the CD8 election. The decision to defeat Mitchell has been made. A strong Mitchell running a strong campaign requires more GOP resources. A weak Mitchell running a mediocre re-election is Schweikert food that frees resources to send south, CD8.

CD5 is the must win slower caribou. Chasing Gabrielle before Harry is the bad bet no smart wolf would make. Harry is dinner. Gabrielle is dessert. Never chase dessert before dinner.

The presidential nominees matter. An Obama nomination lifts all blue candidates and cements victories across the country for many democratic candidates. If Obama prevails, Giffords is in like Flynn and Harry has a good chance. A Hillary nomination, in your humble blogger's opinion, has the opposite effect. A Hillary nod brings nasties out of the wood work.

A Hillary nomination hands the GOP the frame that a GOP congress must be elected to thwart her fanatical ideas (maybe health insurance that provides health insurance). Hillary with a democratic congress is Armageddon. True or not, the conversation will resonate at better than forty percent. A Hillary nod sinks Mitchell and wraps a heavy chain around Giffords ankle.

In my own context, I've run dragging a ball and chain. It's not easy.

12 Comments:

Blogger Dustin said...

so hillary's nomination would bring out all the clinton haters. I have to say that never occured to me, at least not that it would effect any other race. I hope that's not true. Not that it matters much with pelosi and co. running things in congress.

1/11/2008 7:34 AM  
Blogger Liza said...

Another way to look at it is that a McCain nomination will generate enough GOP enthusiasm in Arizona to elevate other GOP candidates. The demographics of CD8 indicate that they could swing back to a popular Republican.

If the final choice is Billary, Inc (please, God, have mercy on your people) and John McCain, then McCain is much more of a problem for AZ Democrats than the Democratic nominee.

1/11/2008 8:00 AM  
Anonymous JW said...

Oh sure. Go to a cigar event and now you are an expert on the Republican side.

1/11/2008 8:57 AM  
Anonymous The Navigator said...

You are probably accurate although I would refine slightly noting that a Hillary nomination will have a gender effect.

To the extent Hillary rallies women, Giffords gains. The gender gain might equal (or even exceed) the anti Hillary losses.

1/11/2008 9:00 AM  
Blogger thinkright said...

interesting, I was going to attend the Cigar event last night, but when it comes to smoke, my asthma would be set off & they'd have to rush me to the ER.

CD 8 is very much in play & there are a lot of factors that will enfluence the outcome.

I agree that the top of each party's ticket will sway some voters one way or the other.
A Hillary, whose negatives are higher than GWB's were in 2004, would motivate the Hillary haters. [Indys & Reps]

McCain would be a boom for AZ Republicans, the Dems may actually not waste much of their money & efforts here.
At this time, Obama does have broader appeal, but just wait, the Clinton machine will bring him back down to Earth. The Clintons didn't lift a finger for Kerry in 2004 in hopes of GWB winning & will do whatever is best for them, not what is best for their party.

Bee vs Gabby will come down to her record (or lack of record) in one Congressional year vs Bee's accomplishments for southern AZ in 8 + years of service. (Gabby didn't really have much of a record when she served in the AZ). He really has been non-partisan & reached across the aisle to get things accomplished for Arizona. She hasn't even made the attempt. Gabby has been a good Pelosi Pawn and has done what she's been told to do.

ahh, but let the games begin. If Bee does decide to run, he'll put up a good, clean fight.

1/11/2008 9:43 AM  
Blogger Dustin said...

I'm sorry, but I just don't see why women would overwhelmingly vote for hillary, sure she's a woman, but that does not seem to matter. Married women make up a pretty good segment of republican voters, and republicans always run crusty old white dudes.

1/11/2008 9:46 AM  
Blogger Dustin said...

I'm not sure why you are so confident TR. Congressional politics is a different ball game than the state legislature. Anyone can win, and we have yet to see what bee has in mind for the campaign, but gabby is an incumbent, with a pretty good size war chest. There is no doubt that congress's performance this last year has been abysmal, but I think depending on how that's framed it might not matter. It will be a close race for certain.

1/11/2008 9:56 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

jw,

My remarks hardly suggest expertise in things GOP. My neighbor's dog knows that Tim Bee is announcing first half of January and that Harry has a tougher race than Gabrielle.

I had a great time last night and really enjoyed the discussion. Frank Antoneri had some very interesting things to say about Iraq.

Yes, I asked questions that did modify the above story slightly. The part about CD1 came from answers to questions over the cigar. Other than that, the piece was already written.

Also, my blogger badge was prominently featured. I introduced myself by both real name and blogger name. No dishonesty here.

We even talked about the blogs.

I had a great time, but not to worry. The drive is too far. I won't become a regular.

1/11/2008 10:13 AM  
Blogger thinkright said...

Dustin,
It will be a challenge for Bee, the local media treats Gabby with kid gloves & she has DC cash financing her. It will be a lot of hard work...he can do it.

X4mr,
Sorry I missed the cigar fest. I may have to go to one of those liberally drinking events one of these days. It'll remind me of my days in Seattle, where I was the crazy neocon & all my pals where the normal libs.

Regarding the top of the ticket. Obama's speaking ability is outstanding & he could capture the middle even though he is way left on most issues. His stance on Guns may hurt him in AZ.

1/11/2008 11:23 AM  
Blogger Emmiyeh said...

I think it all really depends on who's at the top of the ticket. If it is McCain on the Repub side, Harry's toast. The district is too Republican (and too in favor of McCain, despite the immigration stuff) to not GOTV for a Republican in CD5. The facts that Harry gets so little good press up here in PHX and PDA Dems hate him, don't exactly help much, either.

I don't think McCain being on top would make that much of a difference for Gabrielle.

I personally think Obama getting it for the Dems would bring out much more support than Hillary, because I feel Obama can get out first time voters better than she can.

1/11/2008 12:40 PM  
Blogger roger said...

So is Bee staying in the Senate as he runs? The million buck question given the cuts and the state of the budget.

I know that Thinkright and I will be jousting away all year on this one...so let me start...

Come on...Giffords has a solid record as a freshman, an excellent record when she was with the state, and no matter what anyone says, her constituent service record now is unparalelled in comparsion with Bee and what Bee could even do as a legislator.

He is banking on his good record as a legislator, like she did, but still has to contend with the fact that he needs to be in a position of notice and where he can do things...if he stays in the Senate, he has that chance but now will be pinned to his party and with his party on the budget deficit. He might save us some cuts but it will mean being chummy with the governor, which wont help him among conservatives...and there will still be big cuts to things in Southern Arizona that he will have to be able to credit claim about...and wont be able to.

If he leaves, he looks like he left the state in a mess, and as everyone says, Southern Arizona will be poorer without him and wont escape the knife at all. All those poobahs in biz and gov that love him wont be thrilled to see him leave since they all hooked their legislative carts to his horse.

1/11/2008 1:43 PM  
Blogger Liza said...

Hi, Roger,
What are you thinking? The current Democratic Congress is so incompetent that it will be the subject of political science doctoral dissertations for years to come. No member of this Congress can claim to have done much of anything. Getting resume fodder out of 2007-2008 is going to be a real challenge. I would be trying to think of good excuses that might work instead of accomplishments.

1/11/2008 2:32 PM  

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