Monday, October 15, 2007

CD8 Race Fundraising Results

Tucson, Arizona. Whether one agrees with Thinkright's politics, one has to acknowledge that the man appears to be his word. He has asserted that Tim Bee, running or not, submitted financial reports as required by law. Tomorrow's Tucson Citizen has an article presenting the results of last quarter's fund raising results. Yes, our busy Bee, while not raising sums equal to the Congresswoman (to be expected), brought in a chunk of change last quarter, $134,620. She raised $257,779 during the same three month period. Giffords has over $1.1 M tucked away.

Arizona Senate President Tim Bee has raised $135 grand to think about running for Congress. The president of the National Rifle Association co-chairs the committee helping him decide. He has decided.

Tim Bee is running against Gabrielle Giffords for Congress in Arizona's eighth congressional district. He is complying with federal campaign laws. The state also has laws, but the dust is settling. I'm embarrassed I didn't see it sooner. He cannot announce until January 1, which is exactly what he will do.

He can wait until January. Anyone that wants to give him grief for waiting until January can pound salt. I knew he had a legal solution. Now I know what it is. He raises money as an explorer until January. Then he throttles completely forward and releases the brakes.

She has a seven figure sum, but Bees know how to both fly and sting. Not to discount the very hard work and noble efforts of the past, I assert this is the first "real" race for both candidates. Difficult or not, for both the prior races were spring training.

Spring training is over. The 2008 election for the AZ CD 8 seat in Congress is the culmination of a generation of Southern Arizona politics.

15 Comments:

Blogger thinkright said...

Bee did well for an exploratory stage. Most of Tim's money came from Arizonans.
This shows that Southern Arizonans are behind Tim & want him to take on Gabby next year.

I didn't take a look at Gabby's donors, but I bet that most of that money is coming from DC, not southern AZ.

10/15/2007 11:20 PM  
Blogger roger said...

I am not sure that I would call this a successful fundraising beginning. While it is exploratory, it has to be very disappointing. Bee and his folks mounted quite an effort. With all the excitement and "show him you want him to run", Jim Click and the gang couldn't even outraise her in his first quarter, after she had been raising funds for well over a year...and has so many donors already maxed out.

Here is the real story...he started the quarter a slightly less than a million behind. A quarter later he is over a million behind.

10/16/2007 6:40 AM  
Blogger roger said...

On the resign to run, he was actually talking about serving out his post until it ends, which would be at the end of the legislative session in July. The law does say he would have to resign to run in January, like Giffords.

I was really expecting 200-300K or more by Bee. I don't care what anyone says, given his funders and the effort to get him to run, this is a MAJOR disappointment.

10/16/2007 6:49 AM  
Anonymous JT said...

The guy's Senate President, he's got Click working overtime, he's a million bucks in the hole and he still gets outraised 2:1? Lame.

10/16/2007 7:37 AM  
Blogger roger said...

Well said. I would have expected much more. As Senate Pres. He should at least expect funds to support him for his influence.

This will be the story of this election. A well liked Republican faces a well liked and well funded incumbent during a year that benefits democrats. It won't be enough to shift horses midstream. The well liked Republican loses.

Say all you want about PACS and such and dollars in Arizona. This is incumbency advantage and it is why only 5% of House incumbents, on average, are defeated. Bee will not be among those 5%. Its not about him...its about her.

10/16/2007 7:48 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

I am not clear Bee has to resign. I am clear that he cannot announce until January.

Roger,
Not to defend Bee's numbers, but the game theory is thick. His heavy money should follow the official announcement. 3Q07 looks weird enough raising $135 grand while "exploring".

Granted, news of the 4Q07 will break after his announcement, but I would argue that 1Q08 is THE fund raising quarter for Bee. Following the announcement, either the district, the PAC's, and the other organizations respond with the cash,

or they don't.

In 1Q08, his "pent up" energy needs to burst and out raise her, making up for lost time. He has to close the gap by more than half.

10/16/2007 8:38 AM  
Blogger roger said...

Hey Matt,

Not minimizing what you have said about 1Q08, but this is THE most important time to look at his fundraising. They are trying to get him in the game now. They are going after the most loyal of GOP supporters to give and give to the max. They did. And he still didn't outraise Giffords in what is a "run of the mill" quarter for her. I think this is really telling to be honest and there is much more here for him to worry about. With all the talk about him being "the one" and to "encourage him to run", they couldn't outraise her.

Here is another reason why this is a big deal. It is no secret that the GOP has many more races to defend this coming year. Many retirements...and in our state...many more competitive races. They are faced with Renzi's open seat (and Kirkpatrick outraising everyone), a real challenger for Shaddegg (who has almost outraised him...wait until you see the newest figures), and they have to also decide if they want to try to get Mitchell and Giffords back (both incumbents...a tall tall order).

With the disappointing fundraising, and little to go around, Bee needed to show he was really really viable for investment (versus all the other races). I don't think this is going to show him as very viable at all.

Last, if Giffords raises 230K in a "run of the mill" quarter, imagine what she will get in 1Q08.

There is no way on green earth that he will be able to close the gap by more than half when so many of his donor have already maxed. They will be able to meet this amount by giving another $2300 for the general, but not do much to blow her out of the water.

Best!

Roger

10/16/2007 8:49 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

TR,
If you look at Giffords list, you will find broad support, and a lot of her money came in small donations from many, many people.

Roger,
I get your remarks about general GOP challenges and have blogged profusely about them. About Bee, I see it differently, closer to TR's sentiments, which is that until he announces we don't have a clear picture. He MUST announce in January and take the plunge devoting every weekend to events throughout the district.

Fancy dinners at Walkup's house, Jim Click sponsored schmooze-fests where he repeats the "She's not in touch with the district" mantra over and over and over, parades, churches, guest speakers (Cheney would be a bad choice) etc., etc., volunteers and staff hitting the pavement with clipboards and campaign materials.

NONE of it can really occur until he announces.

I think $135K is respectable for last quarter. 4Q07 needs to climb as his network gears up, but 1Q08 is THE quarter.

I have more to say about Bee that I'll put into a regular post.

10/16/2007 11:06 AM  
Blogger roger said...

X4mr...

The Sonoran Alliance post doesnt see Bee's total as repectable.

I still think I disagree with you. By January, Bee is likely to still be amillion behind. This has to have him thinking. Does he really want this?

I just dont think he can win this....and this total really proves it to me. This was a test ... a real test. He gets a C. That won't beat an incumbent.

10/16/2007 11:38 AM  
Blogger thinkright said...

Tim's numbers are good - he filed his exploratory cmtee in September and the funds raised are basically a one month period. $134k in one month & Gabby did $250k in 3 months...

10/16/2007 7:20 PM  
Anonymous JT said...

According to the FEC, in Gabby's first month in 2005 she raised almost 250K. She wasn't Senate President. And she it was December -- the worst month for fundraising.

Bee's number is surprisingly weak by comparison.

The first Q for a campaign is easy money -- lots of big hitters who can give the maximum. Bee's had months to line them up and he has no competition on the Republican side.

He's a million bucks behind -- and he's going to continue to fall behind unless he can pick up the pace in a major way.

10/16/2007 10:01 PM  
Blogger thinkright said...

Gabby had a contested Primary...not a similar situation.

A million buck lead will make things tough, but this district is ours and we'll take it back.

10/17/2007 9:38 AM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

At the time Gabby declared, the primary wasn't very contested (only Latas was in at that point). Further, I don't see why that would be more prone to help, rather than hurt, fundraising.

10/17/2007 12:16 PM  
Blogger roger said...

Remember, this is a GOP district? Isnt that what the GOP tell us? They have been begging Bee to run. Is this how they show their gratitude? JT is spot on right about 1st quarters and about the big money coming up front. Bee is not attracting it just yet.

This appears to be a national trend. I think people also know this. Bee is facing an incumbent...it is near to impossible to beat an incumbent...especially one as well liked as Giffords. And this is a non-GOP year coming. I have mountains of political science backing what I am saying. Smart funders should be sending their dough to the District 1 race...which is an open seat.

10/17/2007 4:33 PM  
Blogger Liza said...

I hate this topic.

10/17/2007 7:47 PM  

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