Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Demographic Politics

Tucson, Arizona. A couple days ago I posted analysis of the growing population of Arizona, which has become the fastest growing state in the nation. As I said, Arizona is becoming the state of Maricopa. What are the political implications?

I assert one can draw many significant political conclusions based on the information from that story and will make some of them.

1. Arizona will not elect a Governor from outside Maricopa County.
2. Arizona will not elect a United States Senator from outside Maricopa County.
3. Pima County’s influence on Arizona’s state policies will continue to decline.

While the reader may at first consider the statements irrelevant, I suggest they have meaningful implications.

Starting with the first assertion, many bloggers including myself have speculated on Republican Tim Bee, currently president of the state senate, running for governor. Forget it. I recant my earlier remarks on the possibility, and I disagree with Roger (still a great guy) who has made statements on several blogs that Bee would have a decent shot.

Moving to the second, we have a young and ambitions congresswoman in CD 8. Assuming the ambition continues and she desires further upward trajectory in politics, she has already topped out in terms of Arizona. Her moving to Maricopa would be problematic given her strong comments about southern Arizona. I am not saying she doesn’t like Phoenix, but the 2006 campaign material, ads, and articles in the press paint a picture inconsistent with a move to Maricopa.

For the third, I have little to say. I am not qualified to discuss re-districting and what happens after the next census, but it bodes well for Maricopa and Pinal, not Pima.

Arguments to the contrary are not only welcome, but invited.


Blogger Liza said...

I totally agree with all three points.

However, on the positive side, Janet Napolitano could be the next Senator and that would be good for Arizona.

The ambitious Ms. Giffords is not a Janet Napolitano, nor will she ever be. If she is careered at the district level, what does it matter to anyone except herself and her fan club? Most of the people in Congress may as well be wind up dolls as they are almost indistinguishable from one another.
That is a bipartisan statement, by the way.

As for Tim Bee, I have not yet formed an opinion.

8/29/2007 5:12 PM  
Blogger thinkright said...

Tucson #32 market in US, Phx #5...your are correct sir.
That is one reason that Tim Bee has to serve out his term. We won't get another Prez of the Senate from Southern AZ...ever.
Don't think Gabby is Senator material. Janet has the popularity & would probably win (if she isn't in the next Administrations cabinet...assuming Hill wins).

8/29/2007 7:06 PM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

I'd like to make an argument, but can't really.

Before term limits were in effect it was possible for very senior officials to have significantly greater power, wherever they were from. That's no longer the case, so the population density of Phoenix must win out.

8/30/2007 7:17 AM  
Blogger A DemLament said...

I can say that people in Maricopa do not care where a candidate lives. In fact, I think you could argue that a candidate from Pima might have an advantage. The only people that care about the geographic origin of any politician live outside Maricopa.

Unless you are LDS there is little in the way of a base of support in Maricopa. The sad fact is that most people that live in Phoenix are new arrivals and they do not know each other. It is easy for me to imagine a candidate with strong support in Pima and central Phoenix winning a Democratic primary. People in Pima need to quit thinking of Maricopa as monolith and realize it is about 20 cities cobbled together and they are in many cases very different. Central Phoenix is represented by Kirsten Sinema and Mesa is represented by Russel Pierce. The districts are not that far apart, but are totally different.

8/30/2007 9:34 AM  

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