Thursday, August 09, 2007

Bee Will Complete Term

(Arizona Senator Tim Bee) Tucson, Arizona. When I last posted that Arizona Senate President Tim Bee would not resign to run, I put a question mark after the statement because my sole source was the blogger Thinkright, a self-admitted fan and supporter of Bee. Well, in the last two days I have had further conversations (not with bloggers) that powerfully replicate Thinkright's assertion. Senator Tim Bee will serve every day of his current office. He defeats Congresswoman Giffords (or does not) AFTER this fact. He is not leaving his post.

I am not qualified to discuss what this means and what he can do when regarding his run for Congress. One fairly reliable source said that he can pretty much do everything important ($$) beginning when the legislature fires up in January. I have no clue if that is accurate.

Now, anyone can change tactics. For all I know the guy will resign tomorrow, but the reader has my word that pretty potent sources are stating with conviction that Bee will face Giffords, but will do so on his terms, and that means completing his term in the Arizona Senate, PERIOD.

Thinkright's credibility just climbed a notch.


Blogger thinkright said...

Tim knows that there won't be another Senate Prez from Southern AZ and has a lot to accomplish for us.
If you go back & read my blog, I'm mostly right.

8/09/2007 9:18 PM  
Blogger Sirocco said...

Maybe so, and it's an admirable attitude in many ways. It's still going to hurt him in the Congressional race.

I wonder if he isn't already thinking along the following lines:

"Well, 2008 is going to be awful for Republicans anyway, and I think it would be hard to win ... so lets serve the full term, then use 2008 as a means to get my name out there.

If I somehow win, so much the better, but if I lose I'll just keep campaigning toward 2010, when I will have more cachet across the district from the 2008 race, and the political environment as a whole might be better for conservatives."

Pure speculation, mind you ...

8/10/2007 7:33 AM  
Blogger AZW88 said...

Bee could quite easily raise big bucks while in the legislature. And that could be a problem for him. If he votes for or supports legislation backed or tied to big contributors, Giffords and any primary opponent will label him as being in the pocket of his contributors.

All of this talk of Bee defeating Giffords is pretty premature, anyway. My bet is on a tough primary from him.

8/10/2007 8:19 AM  
Blogger AZW88 said...

oops, should read "..a tough primary FOR him"

8/10/2007 8:20 AM  
Anonymous Peoria Pundit said...

Actually, he'll have a tough time raising "big bucks" while in the Legislature because the law prohibits lawmakers from accepting money from lobbyists during the session. And since he can't officially raise money for the race now (unless he wishes to resign his seat, because of the state's resign-to-run law), he'll be stuck having to raise the bulk of his funds after the legislative session is over.

If the last two years are any indication -- and, make no mistake about it, they are -- the session will stretch until the end of June. That leaves him less than 5 months to raise money and mount a campaign against a tough incumbent.

If I were him, I'd resign and take the campaign and fund raising more seriously. While Giffords is in DC during the spring, Bee should be in CD8 every day, pounding the streets and knocking on doors, not trying to herd cats in Phoenix.

8/10/2007 8:44 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Upon further consideration, I'm inclined to think along lines similar to Sirocco (shocker there).

Doing the standard probability-volume analysis, Bee knows the AZ Senate Presidency is in his hand, while the CD 8 seat is in the bush, and not with high odds. Why give up so much?

In hindsight, the math does make sense. I completely had peoria pundit's view a couple months ago, and it's a legitimate view for someone wanting to "go for broke" at a seat.

Apparently Bee is not willing to go for broke at CD 8. I can get that.

He will run and run well, and a loss is well considered in his scenario planning.

8/10/2007 9:55 AM  
Blogger Framer said...

Actually, Tim can officially register as a candidate and begin raising money as of January first. After further research and better legal advice than I could get on my own, the "resign to run" law only applies to legislators prior their final year in Office. Gabby Giffords registers in December, she must resign. Steve Huffman registers in February, he is good to go.

My mistake was in assuming that resign to run applied to every year of a term. It does not.

8/10/2007 10:27 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Thanks for the clarification, Framer. The pieces are falling into place.

I didn't have the resources to untangle "resign to run."

Bee is already revving the engines and consolidating support. If he can release the brakes in January and bolt off the runway, it will be quite a race.

Your remarks match those I referred to that said he can do just about everything starting January.


You know something I don't if you think someone is going after Bee in the primary. My radar is 100% solid that Bee has cleared the path except perhaps for some nut he will easily slaughter.

8/10/2007 9:26 PM  

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