Friday, July 20, 2007

Arizona CD 8 in 2008

Tucson, Arizona. I pretty much state what everyone already knows, but I am nailing speculation down to metaphysical certitude. I did my modest equivalent of what Tedski does with elegance, and consider it cemented barring freak events like lightning strikes, cancer, or sudden discoveries of naughty photos, that in 2008 Republican Tim Bee will face Democrat Gabrielle Giffords for the AZ CD 8 seat. Neither will contend with a significant primary. A nut filing on either side will be toasted on impact.

Anyone standing in Paton's way for Bee's seat is roadkill. The GOP will take care of Paton's primary, and LD 30 will not elect a Democrat over someone of Paton's caliber. I'm unclear the Democrats can find someone who would try.

Bee's math is unknown to me, but it is intelligent. He has reasons behind his timing. He will obey the law to the letter, doing what he can prior to resigning. We see that by the path clearing before him. Paths don't clear themselves. Conversations are occurring. What he cannot do before resigning is serious fund raising via checks getting cashed. Verbal commitments from top players via phone are another matter.

When Bee throws the switch, a pile of money accumulating behind the dam will rush into the coffers. I stand by my assertion that he cannot wait until January to pop above radar. I now speculate early October, right after close of Q3. Until then, he operates in submarine mode via commitments, strategic planning, and organizational meetings within the law. It's not against the law to have dinner and chat about politics. It's not against the law to have someone taking notes.

Airline pilots have different ways they like to take off. Bee is the guy that pushes the throttle forward with the wheels locked. The energy mounts and mounts, the wings bending forward from the thrust. At a certain peak, he releases the brakes.

He will pick his timing, but the energy is already building. When he throws the switch, he launches like a rocket sled on rails. For those that know history, this race has been building since 2000.

The 2008 race for Arizona's congressional district eight is a dramatic culmination eight years in the making.

6 Comments:

Anonymous Francine Shacter said...

Very interesting! And for a political junkie, like me, a fascinating side-show!

With regard to Paton, I am fascinated that people who go to Iraq stay for a way long time - Paton, on the other hand, went for 6 months and then came home! What kind of political pull does it take to do that???

I think your assertion that a Democrat cannot get elected iin LD 30 should serve as a spur to Democrats to find and support someone who can!!! If ever there was a time for such a success, it is now!!

7/21/2007 8:18 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Francine,

I served with Jonathan Paton in Iraq. We served in a small unit. He volunteered to go. His 3 NCOs served for 3 month deployments from Ft. Huachuca and his commander served for 5. His follow on replacements served for 6 months too. I served for a 6 month rotation. 6 month rotations (as well as 9 month rotations) are extremely common for reservists as well as active duty. (Marines only serve on 6 month deployments BTW). Only three lieutenants in the reserve were deployed in his brach involuntarily last year (they were all imagery specialists). If he had not volunteered he would not have been called up. Don't believe me? Look at his reserve unit. To my knowledge they have not had a mobilization since he graduated from OBC. If he had not volunteered he would never have gone to Iraq. In my time with him he was shot at with small arms fire and mortar fire. Nice black helicoptor conspiracy theories you're using to cast aspersions on his service. You should be ashamed of yourself for implying he used political connections and yet the evidence to the contrary is huge. You have no proof. Keep up trying to trash his service, though. It worked really well for your party in the last election. I agree with Xfrmr -- anyone who runs against him will be roadkill and not just because of his service. He has done a great job at the legislature.

7/21/2007 3:00 PM  
Anonymous Francine Shacter said...

Dear Anonymous:

Let's see if I understand what you are trying to tell me. The papers are replete with stories of women and men who go to Iraq for terms of a year and more and get extended and extended. Jim Webb tries to get an amendment passed that insures someone in service will have as much time at home as in the field - and the Republicans shoot down this amendment. And you are shaming me for asking how someone gets to go to Iraq for six months - and then come home. How exactly am I supposed to know that there are some forms of service that are privileged by being limited and others which are not?

I asked a question - you're the one who injected the element of political connection. I have no interest in trashing anyone's service - I do find it interesting that bnzcynxwall fighting persons are not playing on a level playing field. Asking a perfectly valid question is casting aspersions? In the words of the bard, something about protesting too much?

I'm glad you are pleased with his service in the legislature - others may have a different thought.

7/21/2007 8:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"How exactly am I supposed to know..."

How about you ask a soldier before you go on the offensive? Having all of the facts might be helpful. I'm not sure how volunteering to go to Iraq is a privilege. That was clearly a loaded word.

You injected politics into it with this phrase:

"What kind of political pull does it take to do that???"

You didn't JUST ask a question you were making a political point by asking it. It was an extremely loaded question, pregnant with implication.

I don't understand your "level playing field" argument. The tour listings are available to anyone who applies for them in the Army Reserve. They are just like the want ads in the paper. That's what Paton did.

Don't believe me? Here's one of hundreds of examples of tours to Iraq for six months to a year off of the HRC website. Be sure you pay close attention to where it says "open to ALL USAR soldiers" towards the bottom of the page:

MOS All
Rank CPT - LTC
Type COTTAD, TCS
Length Varies from 179-365 days
Location Iraq
Start Varies
Duty Description CALL Liaison Officer

Deploy as an embedded liaison officer to Iraq for Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL). Responsible for collecting field observations from target units in Iraq, capturing lessons, and recommending doctrine, organizational, training, materiel, leader development and education, personnel, and facilities (DOTMLPF) implications. Provide reachback capabilities for embedded unit. Provide immediate feedback to embedded unit and CALL to improve unit readiness throughout the Army through publication of observations, lessons, SOPs and successful tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP).
Special Requirements Open to all USAR Soldiers (IRR/IMA/TPU/AGR). Must have valid SECRET security clearance. Must possess excellent written and communication skills. Submit MIL BIO or ORB. There are no waivers to these requirements.

7/21/2007 9:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In aaddition, I find your argument incredibly ironic. During the campaign the democrats all were convinced Paton would not be able to come home on time and would be redeployed. He was attacked for that. When that didn't happen their new attack is that he didn't serve long enough. I think the problem is that the democrats watch too much CNN, which gives them the exceptions and not the rules in Iraq. Was he treated differently than other soldiers? His replacements arrived last week--exactly six months after their tours began.

7/21/2007 10:04 PM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Geez.

As I said, Paton has a cakewalk into LD 30. Relax, Anon. Paton will win. Should a blue candidate rise to the occasion for purposes of exposure, a voice, or some other agenda, Paton will have to field criticism, and for purposes of mental health you might want to develop a thicker skin.

I thought Francine's questions were relatively benign and easy pitches. Just hit them.

7/22/2007 10:34 AM  

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