Tuesday, June 26, 2007

AZ Freshmen & Resign to Run

Tucson, Arizona. Arizona is a resign to run state, which if I understand correctly, ties Bee's hands in certain ways while he remains president of the senate. Those who understand the law better than I do are welcome to clarify, but the gist as I see it is that he can't do too much until he resigns.

After he resigns, my understanding is that all handcuffs are removed. Daniel Scarpinato gave us a good update yesterday replicating other press material that Bee is still saying no, but saying no the way politicians say "Yes, but not yet."

I'm still praying for Al Gore, but hopes are thinning. It hurts. He would make a better president than anyone running. I'll bet the farm that Al Gore has not read Battlefield Earth.

Both Giffords and Mitchell are likely to face a tough race. The GOP has its sights on Mitchell as discussed here at the Times in May.

Neither freshman is taking incumbency for granted. Both are smart enough to know the heat is on. Both are actively fundraising and working hard to secure their seats. Resign to run prevents those currently in office from launching any real rockets.

Payoff / cost analyses are calculating timing. My math says to jump as soon as possible and get to work. Schedule events, raise money, start with a skeleton crew of volunteers and add paid staff as appropriate. Get an office, even if it's a volunteer's guest house, and start an organization.

Bee will carefully choose his moment. Frankly, I think that is the choice. He is considering when, not if, to launch. He has launched some minor salvos, including the following at this May 25 CQ Politics piece:

Bee contends that the congresswoman’s voting record would be her undoing. "The district is a conservative to moderate district, and obviously coming from a liberal to moderate perspective is not representative of the district," he told CQPolitics.com.

The fact that Giffords "is following the Democrat Party line almost verbatim when the district here has a Republican majority and independent voters" does not represent their interests, he said.


No one has resigned to run against Mitchell yet either.

What is the calculus? The session is over. Maybe handle this special session thing and then leave the starting block? The professionals know better than me, but I think waiting is a mistake. I don't know, but based on what has been posted at this blog and others, Giffords is on track for $3/4 M and Mitchell easily $1/2 M by year end, conservatively, and sentiment against Iraq continues to escalate, fueling blue cash.

I'm handing someone on our Congresswoman's staff a check this Saturday.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Francine Shacter said...

Ah, yes! The best government money can buy. I still think issues should be primary, not $$$ raised. I heartily support Durbin's bill for public financing. When I think about the social good that could be done by all the money raised and spent in political races, it makes me sick. Children and families living in poverty, senior citizens deciding between medication and food, homeless people - these are the social ills on which we should be spending money rather than on huge ad campaigns to elect and re-elect legislators.

6/27/2007 8:17 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Always delighted to hear from you, Francine, and don't disagree with a word you've said.

It's disgusting, and the Supreme Court's ruling this week has made it even worse.

The system stinks.

The Catch-22 is brutal. How is it possible to change laws that favor the lawmakers?

6/27/2007 9:52 AM  

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