Friday, October 27, 2006

40% Ceiling Above Graf’s Paygrade

Announced last night on Tucson TV and all over the papers and blogs is the latest Zimmerman CD 8 poll (AZ Star Version) that shows Giffords commanding the usual high 40’s against Graf’s mid to high 30’s, replicating numerous earlier polls and all but cementing what many have been saying for months, Randy Graf cannot surpass 40%. He can count on 35% simply by virtue of being republican. His hard work campaigning and the strong feelings of some regarding his one issue, the border and immigration, might boost him to the higher 30's, but not one poll has shown him hitting 40% in a general election environment.

The single issue candidate's horsepower plummets as the conversation extends to other topics, and he cannot win this election barring some wild card "out of F blue" development. Things can and do come out of the blue, so count on the Giffords camp to keep their eyes glued to the ball as if the poll showed a dead heat.

8 Comments:

Blogger sirocco said...

Well, I fully expect Graf to break 40%, especially as we get closer to the election and the last folks to make up their minds do so. we'll probably see a couple polls show that.

He SHOULD break 40%. I mean, given his expected percentage just for showing up is about 34-38% it simply doesn't take that much to push him over 40%. I'm actually quite surprised he hasn't already.

Whether he can get sufficiently beyond that to actually win, however, is another question entirely ... I expect not.

10/27/2006 10:14 AM  
Blogger Mister T in AZ said...

Hey, allow me to steal this thread for a second since it is only slightly related. Tedski, The Lofty Donkey, and me have put together an arizona netroots donation page.

http://www.actblue.com/page/azblogosphere

While we are currently only raising money for Harry, Jim, Ellen, and Gabby - if you sponsor a candidate (meaning you’ll push the page on your blog and other places) we’ll add anyone you want.

But - if you just read blogs - and want to give money from the netroots to our fav candidates - do so at http://www.actblue.com/page/azblogosphere.

10/27/2006 10:51 AM  
Blogger Marco Alatorre said...

Gabrielle Giffords would vote to ban guns

Gabrielle Giffords is no moderate. She is a liberal, anti-gunner who has stated that she would vote to reauthorize the Clinton Gun Ban, which expired in September 2004.

This ill conceived piece of legislation banned guns based on purely cosmetic features. If a certain gun looks a certain way, then that gun would be banned. At the same time, many guns that were functionally identical to the banned guns remained legal.

And what is the rationale for banning firearms based on mere cosmetic features? The answer lies in the politics of gun control. While it is currently politically impractical to ban all firearms, the foot in the door is to ban those firearms that look "evil". The idea is to tell the public that only "evil" guns are being banned. Then, after the public has become used to the ban of evil guns, you come back for a second pass. You say that many guns have slipped through a "loophole" in the law and these guns that slipped through the loophole are functionally identical to the banned, evil guns and therefore they also should also be banned. Aren't anti-gunners clever!

So, when Gabrielle Giffords says that she would vote to reauthorize the Clinton Gun Ban, she is really admitting that she intends to support a broad attack on all firearms ownership nationwide. Yes, she intends to ban firearms. Yes, she is anti-gun. And yes, she is a liberal pretending to be a moderate.

The Clinton Gun Ban made no sense and finally, even the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms has admitted that it had no effect of crime. Yet Gabrielle Giffords has stated that she would vote to reauthorize such a senseless law that serves no purpose other than to advance the cause of gun control.

10/27/2006 9:17 PM  
Blogger Marco Alatorre said...

Do you know anything about Gabrielle Giffords as a person?

Did you know that she recently rear ended a minority U of A student in her car and when he got out of the car and showed her that he had hurt his neck and wanted to call the police she refused and kept talking on her cell phone?

She told him that it was just a minor accident and that she had to get going. And when he again asked her to call the police she asked him "do you know who I am?"

Can you Imagine her arrogance?

To ask "do you know who I am?" to someone that she has just injured in an auto accident?

Like her time was worth more than making sure that this injured student was OK and had proper documentation of his injury for his insurance.

She had to be asked to call the police a dozen times before she called the cops and then she was cited for speeding.

Gabrielle Giffords is just another spoiled rich kid who is pretending to be for the common man.

Make no mistake, she is a liberal masquerading as a moderate who will tax the middle class, not the rich, in order to achieve her liberal agenda.

10/27/2006 9:21 PM  
Blogger sirocco said...

Marco,

You're making the rounds posting your little story ... and I guess I get to go around behinf posting about how you have no idea of what happened.

I could make up a story just as fictional which portrays Giffords as a saint and the hero of your story as a villain.

Technically she WAS speeding -- she was going about 2 MPH at a time she should have been going 0 MPH (stopped at a light). She was cited for it and did traffic school, just like any other citizen.

I do, in fact, know Giffords personally, and she is neither spoiled nor rich.

By the way, the terms "moderate" and "liberal" are not exclusionary, as your last paragraph implies. One can be liberal and moderate (just as one can be conservative and moderate), and Giffords is a fine example of being both.

10/28/2006 8:17 AM  
Blogger Marco Alatorre said...

Most Democrats would not state that they are for reauthorizing the Clinton Gun Ban, only extremists like Pelosi, Feinstein, Schumer, Kennedy and GIFFORDS would hold such a position. How can you say that it is not extreme to want to ban firearms based purely on the way they look?.

She has admitted that she is an extremist by saying that she would vote to ban guns based solely on the way they look. Therefore she has already admitted that she will will march in lock step with the most extreme wing of your party. And experience has shown that your your party will rubber stamp this position like they did with the 1994 Clinton Gun Ban.

Gabrielle Giffords is a managing partner of El Campo Property Rentals, L.L.P through Giffords MAnagement Group, L.L.C. These groups hold title to a vast amount of commercial real estate. Legally she is an owner of all of these properties. That makes her a multi millionaire. In addition she is manager of Giffords Capital Management L.L.C., whose assets are more hidden.

How many poor folk are manager of three limited liability companies that together own tens of millions worth of real estate?

As to the fender bender, she hit him and wouldn't get off the cell phone long enough to call the police. She acted like the spoiled child, telling him it was only minor and didn't he know she was the great Gabrielle Giffords, and he was wasting her time. She had no time to show some common courtesy for someone she injured.

Gabrielle Giffords is, as I said, a spoiled, rich kid who cares nothing for the common man.

Gabrielle Giffords is an extremist who has admitted that she would vote to ban guns solely based on the way they look, a position taken only by extreme elements od the Dem party.

10/28/2006 9:51 AM  
Blogger x4mr said...

Well, what do you know, seems like old times, another Giffonator emerges in the final week before the election.

Your remarks, Marco, strangely echo the sentiments of Giffonator KMBlue. I'm sure the two you could enjoy a beer and bash her to high heavens, although KMBlue didn't seem quite so obsessed with the gun thing.

On her character, the two of you could really go to town. Not sure what you think you are accomplishing. The vast majority of folks that read this blog already know how they are voting.

10/28/2006 11:13 AM  
Blogger Kralmajales said...

I don't worry about ole' Marco. He and I had an exchange on good ole Arizona 8th and I quickly found that he is an extremist on guns like Randy Graf is.

Remember Randy's bill that was lampooned on Comedy Central? He believed citizens should be able to take guns into bars AGAINST the property owners wishes!!! So much for property rights with this crew.

Marco is angry that Gabby might have questioned the need and legality of some assault weapons. Not that controversial except with far far right gun owner extremists.

10/29/2006 1:39 PM  

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